海外之声 | IMF驻华代表：对中国经济改革的评价和建议（中英双语）

观点速递

本文作者是IMI国际委员、国际货币基金组织（IMF）驻华首席代表席睿德（Alfred Schipke）和IMF驻华副代表张龙梅。原文于2017年10月25日发表于《人民日报》英文版客户端。

本文首先对全球经济的复苏形势进行点评。作 36 35904 36 13005 0 0 6043 0 0:00:05 0:00:02 0:00:03 6046者认为，全球经济增长逐渐放快，现在各国需要实施符合自身现状的政策来略保经济复苏。目前，全球经济复苏尚不全面，依然存在一定阻力。作者倡议各国联手，通过加强互利合作的方式推动复苏。其次，本文对中国近年的经济增长予以积极评价，但是认为这是以较高的债务水平为代价的。作者肯定了近两年国内的经济政策，包括加强资本管制、去杠杆和供给侧改革，这些措施有利于中国的可持续发展。针对目前中国经济改革的进程，文章提出了完善税收制度刺激消费、改善资源分配、继续推进私人部门去杠杆化等建议。

中文译文如下：

可持续增长之路上的关键性改革

作者：席睿德，张龙梅

翻译：潘松岑

审校：陆可凡

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全球经济复苏

IMF最新发布的《世界经济展望》报告强调，当前，全球经济复苏正不断增势，预计2017年全球经济增长率将达到3.6%，2018年将达到3.7%。这远远高于2016年3.2%的增长率，因为去年世界经济增长依旧是步履蹒跚，金融市场持续动荡，而现在亟需立刻采取政策行动来确保经济复苏。

好消息是，由于欧洲、中国、日本以及亚洲新兴经济体的周期性增长，全球加速增长比近十年来的任何时候都要广泛。美国也正以高于趋势增长率的速度增长。这种全球同步复苏为推动经济增长、提高经济韧性的宏伟政策打开了一扇机会之窗。

然而，阻力依然存在，复苏也尚不全面。许多国家仍面临着低通胀、低工资增长；而一些国家，特别是商品出口国以及饱受内乱、政治动荡困扰的国家，仍然面临着更为复杂的挑战。此外，发达经济体的中期前景依旧暗淡，反映出其长期的生产力和人口趋势。

因此，缩小经济复苏中的差距就需要立刻采取政策行动。政策虽因国而异，但各国均有足够的空间来进行结构改革，从而提升经济韧性和潜在产出。财政方面，对于已经恢复充分就业的国家来说，是时候考虑逐步巩固，营造起缓冲区（buffers）。在拥有财政空间的国家，提高基础设施和教育支出可促进未来的生产力提高，并弥补其他方面的财政整顿。投资于人力资本，尤其是投资于青年，将使各国大为受益，这对于维持经济发展至关重要。

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齐心协力

全球性的挑战需要全球性的解决方案。全球同步复苏有望为多边合作开辟新的窗口。但是，现有多边体系需要适应不断变化的全球环境，促进互利合作。当务之急在于巩固全球贸易体系、改进金融监管、加固全球金融安全网络、减少国际避税行为以及应对饥荒、传染病和气候变化等。

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坚持到底

在这种有利背景下，中国经济在2017年表现强劲。特别是工业增长自2012年放缓以来已实现稳定，服务业也依旧稳健。短期内实现强有力增长部分得益于出口的复苏、国内政策支持和供给侧改革。在经历了多年的通货紧缩之后，生产者物价大幅上升，提高了公司利润，也增强了公司的偿债能力。强劲的经济增长和更为严格的资本管制也减轻了过去两年来资本严重外流的压力。考虑到这种强劲势头，IMF调整了对中国经济增长的预测，分别为2017年的6.8%和2018年的6.5%。

同时得到调整的还有中期增长预测，到2020年平均为6.4%，主要反映了中国政府要在2020年将2010年国内生产总值翻一番的目标。然而，这是以较高的中期债务水平和不断增加的脆弱性为代价的。中国确实有潜力保持中期内的强劲增长，但要确保万无一失，还需通过改革来降低增长对于债务和投资的依赖。

近年来，中国在经济调整方面取得了重大进展。经常账户盈余已从2007年的10%下降到目前的2%以下。消费和服务正在获取更大的经济份额。

然而，信贷的迅速扩张和债务积压仍然危及经济的可持续性。最近的强劲增长为去杠杆提供了良好的环境，更有助于加快淘汰僵尸企业，清理相关不良债务。这些改革不可避免地需要短期成本。但这可以通过调动再分配和安置劳动力的财政预算来缓解，而在增长强劲、整体劳动力市场仍具韧性之时，便是采取这种做法的最佳时机。

为了促进经济再平衡，中国有空间通过增加社会支出，完善税收制度来刺激消费。同时，通过减少对国有企业的间接补贴和增加对私营部门的开放来增强市场力量的作用，可以改善资源配置。继续通过严格监管实现私营部门的去杠杆化，更加注重增长质量而非一味地去设立量化目标，将会减少脆弱性。

中国政府已经开始采取重要举措，来推动私人部门的去杠杆化，信贷增长也在放缓。通过抑制银行间拆借和影子银行，金融去杠杆化也取得了重大进展。此外，中央政府还致力于遏制地方政府融资工具借贷。这些努力应继续保持，并在适当领域增强。随着这些改革的落实，中国有望建设一个可持续、更加绿色以及更具包容性增长的光明未来。

英文原文如下：

Reforms key to sustainable growth

By Alfred Schipke and Longmei Zhang 

25th Oct 2017

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Global economic upswing

The last IMF World Economic Outlook highlights that the global recovery is gaining momentum, with growth now projected to reach 3.6 percent in 2017 and 3.7 percent in 2018. This is well above the 3.2 percent of 2016, when world growth was still faltering and financial markets were turbulent, and calls for policy action now to secure the recovery.

The good news is that global acceleration is more broad-based than at any time since the start of this decade, as cyclical upswings accelerate in Europe, China, Japan, and emerging Asia. The United States is also growing above trend. This synchronized recovery offers a global window of opportunity for ambitious policies that will support growth and raise economic resilience. 

Headwinds exist nonetheless and the recovery remains incomplete. Inflation and wage growth remain low in many countries, while some, especially commodity exporters and those beset by civil or political unrest, still face more complex challenges. In addition, the medium-term outlook in the advanced economies remains subdued, reflecting long-term productivity and demographic trends. 

Closing the gaps in the recovery, therefore, requires policy action now. Policies will differ across countries, yet all have ample room for structural reforms that can raise economic resilience and potential output. Fiscally, for countries that have returned to full employment, it is time to think about gradual consolidation and building buffers. In countries with fiscal space, higher infrastructure and educational spending can boost future productivity and offset fiscal consolidation elsewhere. And all countries will benefit significantly from investment in human capital, especially for the youth, that is crucial to sustaining economic development. 

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Acting in concert

Global challenges require global solutions. And the synchronized global recovery likewise opens a new window for multilateral cooperation. Yet, existing multilateral systems need to adapt to the changing global environment and promote mutually beneficial cooperation. Priorities include strengthening the global trading system, improving financial regulation, enhancing the global financial safety net, reducing international tax avoidance, and fighting famine, infectious diseases, and climate change. 

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Staying the course 

Against this favorable backdrop, China's economy is looking stronger in 2017. In particular, industrial growth, after decelerating since 2012, has stabilized, while the service sector remains robust. Strong, near-term growth arises in part out of recovering exports, as well as domestic policy support and supply-side reform. Producer price inflation has surged after years of deflation, boosting corporate profits and improving firms' capacity to service debt. Strong economic growth and tighter enforcement of capital controls have also dampened capital outflow pressures, which had been mounting in the past two years. Reflecting the strong momentum, the IMF has raised its projection of China's growth to 6.8 percent in 2017 and to 6.5 percent in 2018. 

The medium-term growth projection has also been revised up, to an average of 6.4 percent until 2020, mostly reflecting the government's target of doubling 2010 GDP by 2020. However, this comes at the cost of higher medium-term debt levels and increasing vulnerabilities. China truly has the potential to sustain strong growth over the medium term, but to do so safely requires reforms to make growth less reliant on debt and investment.

China has made substantial progress in rebalancing its economy in recent years. The current account surplus has come down from a peak of 10 percent in 2007 to below 2 percent now. And consumption and services are gaining a larger share of the economy. 

Yet rapid credit expansion and debt overhang remain risks to the sustainability of the economy. Recent strong growth provides a good environment to intensify deleveraging, particularly to speed up the exits of zombie firms and the clean-up of associated non-performing debt. Such reforms, unavoidably, would entail short-term costs. But this can be mitigated by on-budget fiscal support for labor-reallocation and settlement, and the best time to do so is when growth is strong and the overall labor market remains resilient. 

To facilitate economic rebalancing, China has room to boost consumption by increasing social spending and making the tax system more progressive. Increasing the role of market forces, meanwhile, by reducing implicit subsidies to state-owned enterprises and opening up to the private sector will improve allocation of resources. And deleveraging the private sector by maintaining the recent regulatory tightening and focusing more on quality of growth and less on quantitative targets will reduce vulnerabilities. 

The Chinese government has already taken important initial steps to facilitate private sector deleveraging and credit growth is slowing. Financial deleveraging, by curbing interbank borrowing and shadow banking, have also made significant progress. In addition, the government has made efforts to curb borrowing by local government financing vehicles. These efforts should be maintained and some areas intensified. By pursuing its reforms, China can look forward to a bright future with sustainable, greener, and more inclusive growth.

观点整理  田雯

图文编辑  田雯

监制  朱霜霜 李欣怡

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